India-US Trade Deal Developments
The much-awaited India-US trade deal edges closer as President Donald Trump confirms negotiations are in advanced stages, with tariffs on Indian goods set to significantly decrease from a punitive 50% down to around 15%. This move is expected to bolster Indian textile, auto part, and seafood sectors, which already posted surge in stock values following the announcement. Annual trade between the two nations stands at approximately $125 billion, with India enjoying a notable trade surplus, exporting roughly $85 billion to the US while importing $40 billion worth of goods in return. The Indian government remains cautious, preferring to negotiate a balanced agreement despite mounting pressure and previous tariff threats from Washington.
Major Advances With European Union
Amid steep US tariffs, India is also making significant headway in trade talks with the European Union. Indian exports to the EU touched $82 billion last year, almost matching US-bound shipments. Current negotiations are focused on sensitive sectors like steel, automobiles, and environmental regulations. Both parties are working towards a preferential framework, with special emphasis on labor-intensive exports. Expectations run high for an agreement that strikes a careful balance between market access and Indian industry sensitivities.
Global Trade and Market Updates
Globally, investors are reacting to the anticipation of a truce between the US and China, after Trump’s pivotal meeting with President Xi Jinping. There are hopes that US tariffs on Chinese goods, previously raised as high as 57%, will drop to 47%, easing costs for international companies and sparking volatility in markets. Asian stocks were mixed at open, while US benchmarks remained volatile, especially after the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points, bringing its benchmark rate to a range of 3.75–4%. The Nasdaq ended at another record close, buoyed by Nvidia’s historic valuation. In India, Sensex and Nifty closed sharply lower, tracking global trends, but energy and metals stocks rallied on trade deal optimism.
Outlook for Key Sectors
Indian energy and IT sectors outperformed, led by easing crude prices and positive sentiment around US–China trade talks. The Nifty Energy index gained nearly 2%, while the Nifty Metal index jumped 1.7%. Domestic institutional investors continued buying, offsetting foreign selling, with major quarterly results from flagship companies—ITC, Adani Power, Swiggy, and others—in focus for the day.
International Perspectives
Global finance chiefs are urging calm amid trade war escalations, with over $35 billion in US tariffs hitting international companies, especially in manufacturing and consumer sectors. India’s ambitious push to handle a third of global seaborne trade by 2047 signals robust plans for port expansion and increased maritime trade, while ongoing trade war and AI dynamics continue to influence global markets and negotiations.
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